Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.532957 2.700170 2.878506 3.083842 3.314990 3.568643 3.870116
2025-03-30 2.265880 2.488280 2.738006 3.042480 3.408351 3.840184 4.398459
2025-04-06 2.089423 2.338939 2.628759 2.996203 3.458758 4.035255 4.831883
2025-04-13 1.939906 2.201206 2.512159 2.917882 3.446931 4.135110 5.139602
2025-04-20 1.869262 2.149392 2.490843 2.949493 3.569844 4.414692 5.725962
2025-04-27 1.821084 2.119570 2.491547 3.005093 3.724768 4.751036 6.449992
2025-05-04 1.778262 2.092186 2.491256 3.056211 3.874719 5.095198 7.252675
2025-05-11 1.711825 2.029712 2.439684 3.030909 3.909198 5.264868 7.791912
2025-05-18 1.654073 1.975042 2.394450 3.009681 3.945355 5.438382 8.372952
2025-05-25 1.599296 1.921311 2.346930 2.980757 3.965276 5.584963 8.933678
2025-06-01 1.549044 1.871152 2.301316 2.950779 3.979486 5.721441 9.506014
2025-06-08 1.513283 1.838839 2.278531 2.952514 4.043642 5.953303 10.354151
2025-06-15 1.489326 1.822274 2.277914 2.988995 4.170901 6.325677 11.686574
2025-06-22 1.443532 1.773659 2.229086 2.947739 4.162078 6.434696 12.386857
2025-06-29 1.400126 1.726732 2.180533 2.903759 4.144227 6.522518 13.065373
2025-07-06 1.350791 1.669835 2.115158 2.829411 4.066410 6.476019 13.329434
2025-07-13 1.333654 1.657755 2.114987 2.859425 4.178784 6.849860 15.115059
2025-07-20 1.323635 1.655239 2.128572 2.912190 4.337717 7.356390 17.732728
2025-07-27 1.312921 1.651177 2.139392 2.960670 4.493250 7.888901 20.978204
2025-08-03 1.284693 1.620690 2.108606 2.936678 4.504192 8.068968 22.814488
2025-08-10 1.258880 1.592954 2.080988 2.916542 4.520982 8.267817 24.984649
2025-08-17 1.232612 1.563798 2.050120 2.889099 4.520431 8.421368 27.110630
2025-08-24 1.207351 1.535454 2.019559 2.860646 4.515436 8.562920 29.393110